Poker EV Calculator
Enter how often you win, what you win when you do, and what you lose when you don't — get the expected value of the decision and the break-even probability.
How to use it
Enter your win probability. How often this decision wins, as a percentage — your equity or your read.
Enter the amount won and lost. Net chips or dollars you gain when it works and give up when it doesn't.
Read the EV. Positive means profitable long-term; the calculator also shows the break-even win rate.
EV = (win% × amount won) − (loss% × amount lost). The result is the average outcome per attempt. Anything above zero is a play worth repeating; anything below zero costs you money over time, however good it feels in the moment.
Break-even probability
The calculator also returns the break-even win probability — amount risked ÷ (amount risked + amount won). If your real chance of winning is higher than that threshold, the decision is +EV; if it's lower, fold. This is the same math behind pot odds: the price you're getting sets the equity you need.
Why EV beats results
One hand tells you almost nothing. A +EV shove can lose; a reckless call can win. Judge decisions by their expected value, not by whether the river cooperated — that is the entire mindset shift that separates long-term winners from break-even players. Over a large sample, variance washes out and EV is all that remains. See the variance calculator for how long "the long run" actually is, and the mental game guides for staying disciplined when a +EV line loses.
Using EV at the table
You won't compute exact EV mid-hand, but training with it rewires your instincts. Plug in the spots you misplay — a thin river call, a semi-bluff shove, a hero fold — and see where the line actually is. Over time you start to feel when a decision clears its break-even threshold and when it doesn't, which is what "thinking in EV" really means.