Fold Equity Calculator
Work out the EV of a shove or big bet: combine how often they fold with your equity when called — and see the fold frequency you need to break even.
How to use it
Enter the pot and your bet. The pot before you act, and the size of the shove or bet you're considering.
Estimate the fold frequency. How often this opponent folds to this pressure — your read on their range.
Enter your equity when called. Your chance to win at showdown if they call — draws, overcards, backdoors.
The tool combines both ways your bet makes money: the pot you pick up when they fold, plus your share of the pot when they call. The total is the shove's expected value; positive means fire.
The formula
EV = fold% × pot + call% × [ equity × (pot + bet) − (1 − equity) × bet ]. The first term is pure fold equity — the pot you win uncontested. The second is your showdown result when called, weighted by how often that happens. A draw with even modest equity often shows a clear profit once fold equity is added on top.
Break-even fold frequency
Treating the bet as a pure bluff (no equity when called), you only need them to fold bet ÷ (pot + bet) of the time to break even. The calculator shows this number so you can compare it to your read: if you think they fold more often than the break-even line, the bet prints — even before counting your outs. This connects directly to minimum defense frequency from your opponent's side.
Why draws make the best shoves
Fold equity and showdown equity add together, and that is why a flush draw is a far better shoving hand than a stone-cold bluff. When you jam a draw, you're happy either way: folds win the pot now, calls give you a live hand with outs. Combine this tool with the outs counter and equity calculator to estimate the equity input, and see postflop strategy for spotting the right semi-bluff spots.